According to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, black voters are expected to account for one-fifth of the electorate in 2016’s primaries. To get the nomination, it’s important that Sanders gain the support of those voters. New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland have something else in common: in all three states, more than 10% of the population is black (in Maryland, 30% of the population is black). A fundraising email sent on Monday read: “After three losses on Saturday, our number one focus is now more important than ever: We must turn out folks in key states like Pennsylvania and New York so that we can finally secure the nomination.” It’s a similar story in Pennsylvania and Maryland – both states where primaries are looming soon, both states with large numbers of delegates available and both states where Sanders is polling at less than 30%.Ĭlinton’s campaign office knows these numbers, too. With 291 delegates up for grabs and the primary just weeks away, Sanders will have to fight hard to change those numbers. In New York, for example, Sanders’ polling average is just 29%, according to the two most recent polls of voters there. Several states are looking particularly tough. I don’t know if we’re going to hit 82% again, like we did in Alaska.” “We’re going to have to win by large margins. “We’re obviously going to have to win most of the states coming up,” Devine said. But that momentum will be difficult to sustain all the way from now until the Democratic National Convention in July. Those numbers make it seem as though Sanders is ahead of target to take the nomination – they’re the much-needed “ momentum” that the Vermont senator mentioned in his victory speech on Saturday. Since 15 March, Sanders has had a string of big wins in Idaho (where he got 78% of the vote), in Utah (79%), Alaska (82%), Hawaii (70%), and Washington (73%). After his losses on 15 March, Sanders needed to get an average vote share of 60% to overtake Clinton’s delegate numbers. Unlike the incredibly complex set of Republican regulations, for Democratic candidates, a higher number of votes translates more directly to a higher number of delegates. The first of those is simple enough in theory: increase his vote share. In fact, given certain ideal conditions – including a herd shift among those superdelegates – Sanders still has a chance to win the nomination, if he can do at least three things. Sanders, however, is claiming momentum, and his campaign points to more than $4m in donations that have poured in since Saturday.
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